and rapid movement toward universal education, and shortages of potential teachers per se are unlikely to prevent such rapid movement.* It is, after all, precisely in those countries with serious shortages of secondary graduates (the tropical African countries) that the most rapid increases in enrollments and in the output of secondary graduates are occurring.
Educational authorities can exercise considerable flexibility in setting minimum standards for teacher qualifications. This is adequately demonstrated by a comparison between the poorest countries, where most primary school teachers have had practically no training as teachers and perhaps no more than 6 or 7 years of primary schooling themselves, and the western countries, which normally require at least 2 years of higher education beyond the secondary level for their primary school teachers.' The length of the training course, if any, given to recruits to the teaching force may also be varied. The effect of these shortcuts on the quality of education may be a serious concern; indeed, shortages of secondary graduates should perhaps be seen more as a bar to qualitative improvement than to quantitative expansion.
The demographic constraints on teacher supply in developing countries, then, are not absolute constraints; they may in time be effectively eliminated by a balanced expansion of the school system. (As shown later, they can be eliminated more rapidly if the birth rate declines.) In particular, secondary education must be expanded rapidly enough to sustain growth; it must be able to absorb the desired proportion of pupils completing primary school, provide enough primary school teachers and enough entrants to institutions of higher learning to staff the secondary schools themselves subsequently, as well as fill the many other jobs which require a higher education. The need for rapid expansion of secondary education is felt not only in countries in which a shortage of high school graduates has tended to hinder the expansion of primary education and hold down its quality but also in those educationally more advanced countries in which primary education is already universal and where the drive is now toward a broadened and improved system of secondary education. This is particularly true of countries such as the Republic of Korea and Venezuela, in which a burgeoning economy is creating new demands for skilled manpower in many fields.
Teachers and Costs
This need for rapid expansion of secondary education leads us straight to the other aspect of the teacher supply problemócosts. There are a number of interlocking aspects of this problem. One is that an educated person in a less
*For an interesting account of the expansion of Kenya's teaching force in the 1950's to keep pace with rapid enrollment increase, see (33).
'For the situation in Asian countries, see (34).n raising them, because in most cases death rates are already low while fertility remains high. The extent to which this potential will be realized willio of private expenditure to public expenditure on education varies between countries. There is unfortunately a dearth of intercountry comparative information on private expenditures on education.al-urban migration, in the multilingual character of the society, in the existence of polygamy, and